Webbläsaren som du använder stöds inte av denna webbplats. Alla versioner av Internet Explorer stöds inte längre, av oss eller Microsoft (läs mer här: * https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Var god och använd en modern webbläsare för att ta del av denna webbplats, som t.ex. nyaste versioner av Edge, Chrome, Firefox eller Safari osv.

Svartvitt foto på Thomas Hickmann. Foto.

Thomas Hickmann

Docent | Biträdande universitetslektor

Svartvitt foto på Thomas Hickmann. Foto.

Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models

Författare

  • Thomas Hickmann
  • Christoph Bertram
  • Frank Biermann
  • Elina Brutschin
  • Elmar Kriegler
  • Jasmine E. Livingston
  • Silvia Pianta
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Bas Van Ruijven
  • Detlef Van Vuuren

Summary, in English

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement.

Avdelning/ar

  • Statsvetenskapliga institutionen
  • BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate
  • LUCSUS
  • Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC)

Publiceringsår

2022-09

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

171-185

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Politics and Governance

Volym

10

Issue

3

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Cogitatio Press

Ämne

  • Political Science
  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 2183-2463