Roger Hildingsson

Roger Hildingsson

Forskare

Roger Hildingsson

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

Author

  • Patrik Soderholm
  • Roger Hildingsson
  • Bengt Johansson
  • Jamil Khan
  • Fredrik Wilhelmsson

Summary, in English

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries' emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avdelning/ar

  • Statsvetenskapliga institutionen
  • Miljö- och energisystem
  • Institutet för livsmedelsekonomisk analys, AgriFood
  • Miljöpolitik-lup-obsolete
  • BECC - Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate

Publiceringsår

2011

Language

Engelska

Sidor

1105-1116

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Futures

Volym

43

Issue

10

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Elsevier

Ämne

  • Energy Systems
  • Social Sciences Interdisciplinary

Nyckelord

  • Energy scenarios
  • Low-carbon society
  • Transition governance

Status

Published

Projekt

  • Governing transitions towards Low-Carbon Energy and Transport Systems for 2050

Forskningsgrupp

  • Miljöpolitik-lup-obsolete

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 0016-3287