The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

The causal link between economic expectations and independence preferences

Independence referendums are often characterized by a polarized climate, with factions unable to agree on valence issues such as the economic consequences of independence. Are voters willing to update their beliefs in the face of new valence information? It depends, according to a new study authored by Gustav Agneman, published in the European Journal of Political Economy.

In a representative survey in Greenland, a constituent country of the Kingdom of Denmark with a viable separatist movement, Agneman finds relatively strong support for national independence in a baseline sample (40% for, 30% against). 

The support is significantly lower among respondents who read a piece of information on the current fiscal dependence on Denmark (which funds almost half of Greenland's public budget) before voting. However, only respondents with personal ties to Denmark react to the information by updating their beliefs and voting behavior. In other words, whether valence information affects preferences for independence is contingent upon national identity. 

The results underline the importance of considering instrumental motives to understand independence movements. At the same time, the study shows that far from everyone is affected by instrumental motives. As such, the results may provide a clue as to why proponents and opponents of independence may appear to be living in separate universes; indeed, that is what they do.

Read the article on ScienceDirect’s website

Gustav Agneman’s personal page