A starting point in the study is that it matters if the party explicitly states that it wants a position in government. It will also matter If the party is a fringe or a centre party. The authors evaluate experimentally how distinct levels of opinion polls affect voting for smaller parties.
Authors: Annika Fredén, Bastiaan Bruinsma, Nora Theorin och Henrik Oscarsson
Title: Insurance voting in the Centre: An Experimental Approach