The Higher Research Seminar: Kristen Kao, University of Gothenburg - “The Effects of Injustice on Legitimacy in Post-Conflict Settings”

Abstract

In post-conflict settings, holding perpetrators accountable is widely viewed as essential for restoring the rule of law and rebuilding institutional legitimacy. Yet, justice providing authorities face the challenge of walking a fine line between under- and over-punishment of former enemies: sanctions perceived as too lenient may signal impunity, while those viewed as too harsh may appear as victor's justice. I argue that legitimacy hinges not on punishment per se, but on proportionality. Building upon work in the psychology of forgiveness and revenge, I develop the concept of an injustice gap - the distance between the punishment an individual believes is appropriate and the punishment imposed by an authority -and theorize that legitimacy declines as this gap widens in either direction.

To test this framework, I field an original, face-to-face survey experiment embedded in a probability sample of 4,592 Iraqis across three governorates grappling with reintegration after the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS). In a two-stage vignette design, respondents first state their preferred punishment for a former ISIS collaborator and are then randomly assigned to observe a state judge, tribal leader, or religious authority imposing a sentence. This design permits causal estimates of how both the size and direction of injustice gaps affect authority legitimacy.

I find that any deviation from respondents’ proportionality preferences---whether under- or over-punishment---significantly reduces perceived legitimacy, and that losses increase with the magnitude of the gap. Importantly, state authorities suffer substantially greater legitimacy penalties than customary authorities when punishments diverge sharply from public expectations. These effects are especially pronounced among citizens associated with the conflict's losing side. The findings suggest that accountability strengthens institutions only when punishment aligns with widely held beliefs about proportional justice, and that in legally plural settings, state actors may be more vulnerable than traditional authorities to legitimacy erosion when justice is perceived as miscalibrated.

Kristen Kao

Kristen Kao is an Associate Professor with the Department of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg. She holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Kristen is a Wallenberg Academy Fellow, an affiliated scholar of the  Global Scholars Network on Identity and Conflict (GSNIC) at Harvard University, an Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) member, and an Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab Invited Researcher. She has published work on post-conflict reconciliation, customary authorities, ethnic politics, and forced migration in the top journals in her field including  American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, and World Development, among others. Her edited volume Decentralization, Local Governance, and Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa with Ellen Lust was published with the University of Michigan Press in 2025. In 2019, her research on post-conflict reconciliation in Iraq won the Franklin L. Burdette Pi Sigma Alpha award for the best paper presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting. Her work relies upon mixed methods, including in-depth fieldwork, large-n surveys, and experiments across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. She is currently or has previously served as an advisor to the United Nations International Organization for Migration, World Bank, Carter Center, and National Democratic Institute, and is a country expert for the Freedom House and the Varieties of Democracy Institute. Kristen is a former Fulbright Scholar in Egypt and Boren Fellow in Jordan and Kuwait. You can read more about Kristen’s research at www.kristenkao.com.  

The Higher Research Seminar is the main collective seminar of the Department. The research staff and invited national and international leading scholars present ongoing research and analyses of a broad range of exciting topics of relevance for Political Science.

The Higher Research Seminar is held on Wednesdays, 13.15 to 14.30 in Eden 367, unless otherwise indicated. PhD Mid-term seminars 13:15 to 14:45. 

Convenors: Robert Klemmensen and Jonathan Polk

The seminars are open to the public. Welcome to join us!

The Higher Research Seminar | Department of Political Science