Your browser has javascript turned off or blocked. This will lead to some parts of our website to not work properly or at all. Turn on javascript for best performance.

The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here:

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Gustav Agneman. Black and white. Photo.

Gustav Agneman

Postdoctoral fellow

Gustav Agneman. Black and white. Photo.

How economic expectations shape preferences for national independence : Evidence from Greenland


  • Gustav Agneman

Summary, in English

This paper investigates how economic expectations shape voting intentions in a hypothetical independence referendum in Greenland, a self-governing region of the Kingdom of Denmark. I identify the causal effect of economic expectations by randomly exposing respondents to a prime informing on Greenland's current fiscal deficit. Respondents exposed to the information are 43% more likely to oppose independence, an effect I attribute to (a) worsened economic expectations and (b) greater political participation among pessimistic respondents. I further document that the impact of the prime depends on respondents’ ties to the political union. While information exposure substantially increases opposition to independence among voters with strong ties to Denmark, voting intentions are essentially unchanged for respondents with weak ties to Denmark. Still, instrumental motives shape preferences for a sufficiently large proportion of voters for the information prime to alter the outcome of the independence referendum.


  • Department of Political Science

Publishing year





European Journal of Political Economy

Document type

Journal article


Tranfer Verlag, Regensburg, FRG


  • Political Science


  • Independence preferences
  • Survey experiment
  • Voter behavior




  • ISSN: 0176-2680