Political hostility between different political camps has increased in many democracies in recent years. Researchers speak about affective polarization, whereby voters increasingly view political opponents not merely as people with different opinions, but also as threatening or immoral.
In the new project, the researchers will investigate whether this trend is driven by a self-reinforcing spiral involving politicians, voters, and social media algorithms.
— “We want to understand how the interaction between political actors, voters and digital platforms influences political polarization. If certain types of messages are systematically favoured by algorithms, this can have significant consequences for democratic discourse,” says Hanna Bäck, Professor of Political Science at Lund University and project leader.
The project is based on the hypothesis that politicians may benefit from polarizing rhetoric that mobilises their own supporters. At the same time, social media tends to reward content that evokes strong emotions and engagement. Likes, shares and comments can, in turn, serve as signals to politicians about which messages have the greatest impact, which may further reinforce this trend.
The researchers will compare Sweden and Finland and combine several methods. Using AI-based analyses, they will study both the content and the tone of parliamentary debates. The researchers will link the results to social media analyses and experiments investigating how voters are influenced by polarizing messages and algorithmic amplification.
— “By combining large-scale data analyses with experiments, we can gain a more comprehensive picture of how polarization arises and spreads in today’s digital media landscape,” says Hanna Bäck.
The project will run from 2027–2030 and is being carried out in collaboration with Emma A. Renström, Professor of Psychology at Kristianstad University.
Project details
Project title: A Divisive Spiral? Elite Communication, Voter Engagement, and Algorithmic Amplification of Affective Polarization
Project leader: Hanna Bäck, Professor of Political Science, Lund University
Participating researcher: Emma A. Renström, Professor of Psychology, Kristianstad University
Funding body: The Swedish Research Council
Amount granted: SEK 4,859,000
Project period: 1 January 2027–31 December 2030
Contact
Hanna Bäck
Professor of Political Science
Department of Political Science, Lund University