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Svartvitt foto på Annika Fredén. Foto.

Annika Fredén

Docent

Svartvitt foto på Annika Fredén. Foto.

Insurance Voting in the Centre: An Experimental Approach

Författare

  • Annika Fredén
  • Bastiaan Bruinsma
  • Nora Theorin
  • Henrik Oscarsson

Summary, in English

Recent research suggests that to help their preferred coalition win an election, voters are willing to vote for a political party other than their preferred choice. In this field, voting for smaller parties under proportional representation is an under-studied feature. A crucial factor to estimate the chances for smaller parties is polls. In this study, we analyze the influence of opinion polls on switching vote choice to a smaller party when the party polls are at different levels. Building on an original survey experiment, we elaborate the potential differences in impact on insurance voting for a small party with looser or stronger association with a government alternative. The focus is the 2022 Swedish general election and the three smallest parties in parliament: the Green Party (center-left), the Christian Democrats (right), and the Liberals (center-right). The experiment had nine different conditions where each of these parties was placed at different levels of opinion: below, at, and above the parliamentary threshold, while holding all other factors constant. We find that poll-induced insurance voting is most prevalent for the party with the strongest preference for a government alternative (the Christian Democrats) and least prevalent for the party with a more issue-focused stance (the Greens).

Avdelning/ar

  • Statsvetenskapliga institutionen
  • LU profilområde: Naturlig och artificiell kognition

Publiceringsår

2024-08-09

Språk

Engelska

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

Volym

36

Issue

3

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Oxford University Press

Ämne

  • Political Science

Nyckelord

  • opinionsmätningar, spärr, koalitioner, röstning

Aktiv

Published

Projekt

  • Bias and methods of AI technology studying political behavior

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1471-6909